COMPARISON OF EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING AND MULTIPLICATIVE SEASIONALITY METHODS FOR FORECASTING STUDENT GRADUATION BASED ON SEMESTER ACHIEVEMENT INDEX
Keywords:
Forecasting, Exponential Smoothing, Winter Multiplicative Seasonality
Abstract
Forecasting is an important tool in effective and efficient planning. This method is a continuous improvement procedure for forecasting the latest observation objects. This forecasting method focuses on the exponential decrease in priority on the object of observation that is longer. This forecasting method can only predict from data in the form of horizontal data patterns. In this study, the authors will compare the Exponential Smoothing and Winter Multiplicative Seasonality methods, where the authors will use a sample in the form of a student achievement index, so that a conclusion will be drawn from the comparison of the two methods which is better in forecasting.
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References
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[2] DC Montgomery, CL Jennings, and M. Kulahci, Introduction to Time Series
Analysis and Forecasting, no. 1. Canada: ohn Wiley & Sons. Inc., 2003.
[3] E. Prasetyo, “Application of Crispy Prism Anchovy Inventory Simulation Using the Monte Carlo Method,” J. Sist. and Technol. inf. Indonesia., vol. 01, pp. 43–49, 2016.
[4] E. Prasetyowati and B. Said, "Determination of Madura Batik Stock Based on Production Limitations Using Holt-Winters Model and Simplex Method," Semin. Nas. Inov.and App. Technol. in Indonesia. 2019, pp. 7–14, 2019, doi: 2085-4218.
[5] F. Andrian, S. Martha, and S. Rahmayuda, "Forecasting the Number of New Students Using the Triple Exponential Smoothing Method," J. Komput. and Apps, vol. 08, no.01, pp. 112–121, 2020.
[6] NP Dewi and I. Listiowarni, "Forecasting Project Material Prices Using the Least Square Method (Case Study: CV Rizky Mulya)," J. Teknol. Inform., vol. 2617, no. 1, pp.27–33, 2019.
[7] R. Sistem, I. Mardianto, MI Gunawan, D. Sugiarto, and A. Rochman, "Comparison of Rice Price Forecasting Using ARIMA Method on Amazon Forecast and Sagemaker," J. Resti (Sist Engineering and Information Technology), vol. . 1, no. 10, 2021.
[8] A. Fahlevi, FA Bachtiar, and BD Setiawan, "Comparison of Holt's and Winter's Exponential Smoothing for Forecasting the Consumer Price Index for the Transportation, Communications and Financial Services Group," J. Pengemb. Technol. inf. and Computer Science., vol. 2, no. 12, pp. 6136–6145, 2018,
Published
2022-06-30
How to Cite
Prasetyo, M. A., Hutagalung, D. K., & Nasution, D. (2022). COMPARISON OF EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING AND MULTIPLICATIVE SEASIONALITY METHODS FOR FORECASTING STUDENT GRADUATION BASED ON SEMESTER ACHIEVEMENT INDEX. INFOKUM, 10(02), 1075-1082. Retrieved from http://infor.seaninstitute.org/index.php/infokum/article/view/513
Section
Articles
